Implementation of The Moving Average Method for Forecasting Inventory in CV. Tre Jaya Perkasa

Main Article Content

Putri Huriati
Aldo Erianda
Alde Alanda
Dwiny Meidelfi
- Rasyidah
- Defni
Ade Irma Suryani

Keywords

forecasting, inventory, moving average, MAPE, MSE, MAD

Abstract

The supply chain is an organization's place to distribute production goods and services to customers. This chain is a network of various organizations that are interrelated and have the aim of carrying out the procurement or supply of goods. Inventory is storing goods in the form of raw materials, semi-finished goods or finished goods that will be used in the production or distribution process. CV. Tre Jaya Perkasa is a company engaged in the distribution of goods such as snacks, drinks and daily necessities. CV. Tre Jaya Perkasa is located in Solok, West Sumatra, Indonesia. From January 2020 to June 2021, CV. Tre Jaya Perkasa has made more than 10 thousand transactions. Based on the sales data, each period (month) of sales transactions can increase and decrease, and the company must plan product sales in the coming period. To maximize profits and minimize losses, a strategy is needed to maintain the availability of goods that are often purchased by customers. From historical transaction data, the company can predict how much stock should be provided for transactions in the coming period. The method used is the moving average method, to measure the error rate of forecasting, MAD, MSE and MAPE are used. Based on the research that has been done, then carried out on the product Trick Potato Biscuit BBQ 24 BOX X 10X18 forecasting comparison between using 3 periods and 5 periods, using 5 product data that are most often purchased by buyers, it was found that the average value of MAD, MSE and MAPE closer to 0 is to use 3-period forecasting.

References

A. P. Irawan , Manajemen Rantai Pasokan, Jakarta, 2008.

F. P. Putri, M. and I. Yuliasih, "Effectiveness And Efficiency Improvement Of Fruit Agroindustry Supply Chain Management: Literature Review And Future Research Agenda," Jurnal Teknologi Industri Pertanian, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 338-354, 2020.

F. A. F. Astuti and A. R. Fachrudin, Manajemen Industri, Klaten: Lakeisha, 2020.

A. Listiani and S. D. Wahyuningsih, "Analisis Pengelolaan Persedian Barang Dagang Untuk Mengoptimalkan Laba," Jurnal PETA, vol. Vol. 4, pp. 95-103, 2019.

"CNN Indonesia," CNN Indonesia, 24 September 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20210924092132-92-698791/nike-pangkas-target-penjualan-gara-gara-ppkm-ri-dan-vietnam. [Accessed 28 11 2021].

A. Nurlifa and S. Kusumadewi, "Sistem Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Pada Rumah Jilbab Zaky," Jurnal Inovtek Polbeng-Seri Informatika, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 18-25, 2017.

N. R. Hay’s, A. and R. Adrean, "Sistem Informasi Inventory Berdasarkan Prediksi Data Penjualan Barang Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average Pada CV.Agung Youanda," Jurnal ProTekInfo, vol. 4, pp. 29-33, 2017.

A. Lusiana and P. Yuliarty, "Penerapan Metode Peramalan (Forecasting) Pada Permintaan Atap di PT X," Industri Inovatif -Jurnal Teknik Industri ITN Malang, pp. 11-20, 2020.

R. Y. Hayuningtyas, "Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average Dan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing," PILAR Nusa Mandiri, vol. 12, pp. 217-222, 2017.

A. Hajjah and Y. N. Marlim, "Analisis Error Terhadap Peramalan Data Penjualan," Techno.COM, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 1-9, 2021.

R. Rachman, "Penerapan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Produksi Industri Garment," Jurnal Informatika, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 211-220, 2018.

J. Maknuni , "Pengaruh Media Belajar Smartphone Terhadap Belajar Siswa Di Era Pandemi Covid-19," Indonesian Education Administration and Leadership Journal (IDEAL), 2020.

F. Nugrahani, Metode Penelitian Kualitatif, Surakarta, 2014.

F. Ahmad, "Penentuan Metode Peramalan Pada Produksi Part New Granada Bowl ST Di PT.X," JISI: Jurnal Integrasi Sistem Industri, pp. 31 - 39, 2020.

S. Aktivani, "Uji Stasioneritas Data Inflasi Kota Padang Periode 2014-2019," Jurnal Statistika Industri dan Komputasi, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 26-33, 2021.

A. Kumila, B. Sholihah, E. N. Safitri and S. Fitri, "Perbandingan Metode Moving Averagedan Metode Naïve DalamPeramalan Data Kemiskinan," Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika (JTAM), vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 65-73, 2019.

D. Kusmindari, A. Alfian and S. Hardini, Production Planning And Inventory Control, Yogyakarta: Depublish Publisher, 2019.

R. Awaluddin, R. Fauzi and D. Harjadi, "Perbandingan Penerapan Metode Peramalan Guna Mengoptimalkan Penjualan (Studi Kasus Pada Konveksi Astaprint Kabupaten Majalengka)," Jurnal Bisnisman: Riset Bisnis dan Manajemen, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 12-18, 2021.

I. Ardiansah, I. F. Adiarsa, S. H. Putri and T. Pujianto, "Penerapan Analisis Runtun Waktu pada Peramalan Penjualan Produk Organik menggunakan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing," Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 548-559, 2021.

F. Kusuma, M. Ahsan and S. , "Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Indonesia menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average dan Double Moving Average," Jurnal Informatika dan Rekayasa Perangkat Lunak, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 105-109, 2021.